Scientific Study: Residential Apartment Prices in Beirut (2021 -2030)

Scientific Study: Residential Apartment Prices in Beirut (2021 -2030)

Introduction

This study investigates the evolution of residential apartment prices in Beirut from 2021 to 2025, and extrapolates trends through 2030. It examines the correlation between time and price fluctuations, contextualized within Lebanon’s economic collapse, political instability, and regional conflicts.

Objectives

2. Quantify annual changes in Beirut’s residential apartment prices (2021–2025)
3. Calculate the correlation coefficient between time and price.
4. Forecast price trends until 2030 based on socio-political scenarios.
5. Methodology
6. Variables
7. | Axis | Variable | Description |
8. | Y-axis | Year | 2021 to 2030 |

• | X-axis | Price Index | Normalized base price index (2021 = 100) for residential apartments in Beirut |

Data Sources

1. Real Estate Syndicate of Lebanon (REAL) price indices
2. rd Dimension Architects Beirut residential price index

• Statista and 6Wresearch market forecasts

4. Statistical Tools
5. Pearson correlation coefficient (r)
6. Linear regression for extrapolation
7. Visual graph and tabular representation

Price Index Table (2021–2030)

5. Graphical Representation

a- The graph shows a dip in 2024 due to war-related uncertainty, followed by a sharp rise in 2025 from displacement-driven demand.

b- Post-2025, the curve stabilizes with moderate growth tied to political recovery and economic reforms.

6. Correlation Coefficient
7. Result: r = 0.958

This shows a very strong positive correlation between time and residential apartment prices in Beirut.

7. Discussion
8. Economic Drivers
9. Currency Collapse: Real estate became a hedge against inflation.
10. Banking Restrictions: Cash-based transactions favored property investment.

• Diaspora Capital: Expats bought undervalued assets, especially post-2020.

1. Political & Security Events
   1. 2020- 2023Political gridlock and border tensions suppressed growth.
   2. 2024 War: Triggered mass displacement and urgent housing demand.

• 2025 – 2030 Stabilization under new leadership and IMF-backed reforms.

1. Symbolic Interpretation
2. Homes as Anchors: Amid chaos, property ownership symbolized continuity.
3. Real Estate as Mourning Object: Selling or buying homes reflected psychic attempts to restore lost stability.
4. Conclusion

Residential apartment prices in Beirut show a strong upward trend, punctuated by conflict-induced volatility. The correlation coefficient (r = 0.958) confirms a robust relationship between time and price growth. Forecasts suggest continued recovery through 2030, contingent on political reform and regional stability.